Competition With the Originating Population


An important point in these simulations is that when a differentiated organism

arises, it is immediately competing with its originating population.  Because

non-harmful mutations are rare, it’s normal for the mutants to be competing

against a much greater  number of very similar organisms.  Within an ocean

environment that is saturated with similar organisms, a new variation that is

only  average in  immediate  survivability  does not have a good chance of

generating a large population of descendants. Only those new varieties that

are better than average in immediate survivability will increase in population.


Theoretical probability is more useful at predicting events with large real-world

samples than with smaller samples. We can expect, therefore, that these mathe-

matical principles will very well predict population changes on a planet which

is mostly covered with water that is saturated with microscopic organisms.


Should there be two groups in unequal competition, (one is more competitive

than the other) one will increase while the other decreases in population. This

is according to the principle of immediate survivability.


Steps of the Simulations


The simulations are divided into steps, each of which is essential if an organism

that doesn’t rely solely on sunlight for energy is to arise from a population that

relies only on sunlight for energy. The probability of some steps will be estimated

in plausibility degrees: maximum reasonable, minimum reasonable, and mean.


Mutation Rate Estimates


Assume an original population of 10e29 with mutations occurring once in:

    1,000,000 organism divisions maximum

    4,000,000 organism divisions mean

  10,000,000 organism divisions minimum


Estimates for the frequency of non-harmful mutations, are:

    Maximum:  1 in every 1000 mutations

    Mean:  1 in every 4,000 mutations

    Minimum: 1 in every 10,000 mutations


This gives, for all cell divisions, one non-harmful mutations per:

       10e9   organism divisions maximum

       10e10 organism divisions mean 

       10e11 organism divisions minimum


The probabilities of a mutation falling into one of the four basic groups:


Category #1Beneficial by improving survivability such as increased efficiency

        (“C1”)      in converting light to energy or in cell efficiency, or reproduction, etc            


Minimum: 1,000 per million non-harmful mutations

Mean: 5,500 per million          “        “              “  or 1 in 182 non-harmful mutations

Maximum: 10,000 per million  “       “             “


Category #2:    No immediate benefit apparent but there is a slight change within

     (“C2”)        the cell that might become, over many generations, part of a structure

                        that uses an energy source other than light


Minimum: 1,000 per million non-harmful mutations

Mean: 5,500 per million          “         “             “        or 1 in 182 non-harmful mutations

Maximum: 10,000 per million “         “             “


Category #3:   A mutation that is a combination of the above two types, in

     (“C3”)        that it increases both immediate survivability and the potential

                       for a future energy source other than light


Minimum: 2 per million non-harmful mutations

Mean: 51 per million        “         “             “   or about 1 in 19600 non-harmful mutations

Maximum: 100 per million “       “             “


Category #4:    No positive effect and no change that would ever result in

                        any structure related to an energy source other than light