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Competition With the Originating Population
An important point in these simulations is that when a differentiated organism arises, it is immediately competing with its originating population. Because non-harmful mutations are rare, it’s normal for the mutants to be competing against a much greater number of very similar organisms. Within an ocean environment that is saturated with similar organisms, a new variation that is only average in immediate survivability does not have a good chance of generating a large population of descendants. Only those new varieties that are better than average in immediate survivability will increase in population.
Theoretical probability is more useful at predicting events with large real-world samples than with smaller samples. We can expect, therefore, that these mathe- matical principles will very well predict population changes on a planet which is mostly covered with water that is saturated with microscopic organisms.
Should there be two groups in unequal competition, (one is more competitive than the other) one will increase while the other decreases in population. This is according to the principle of immediate survivability.
Steps of the Simulations
The simulations are divided into steps, each of which is essential if an organism that doesn’t rely solely on sunlight for energy is to arise from a population that relies only on sunlight for energy. The probability of some steps will be estimated in plausibility degrees: maximum reasonable, minimum reasonable, and mean.
Mutation Rate Estimates
Assume an original population of 10e29 with mutations occurring once in: 1,000,000 organism divisions maximum 4,000,000 organism divisions mean 10,000,000 organism divisions minimum
Estimates for the frequency of non-harmful mutations, are: Maximum: 1 in every 1000 mutations Mean: 1 in every 4,000 mutations Minimum: 1 in every 10,000 mutations
This gives, for all cell divisions, one non-harmful mutations per: 10e9 organism divisions maximum 10e10 organism divisions mean 10e11 organism divisions minimum
The probabilities of a mutation falling into one of the four basic groups:
Category #1: Beneficial by improving survivability such as increased efficiency (“C1”) in converting light to energy or in cell efficiency, or reproduction, etc
Minimum: 1,000 per million non-harmful mutations Mean: 5,500 per million “ “ “ or 1 in 182 non-harmful mutations Maximum: 10,000 per million “ “ “
Category #2: No immediate benefit apparent but there is a slight change within (“C2”) the cell that might become, over many generations, part of a structure that uses an energy source other than light
Minimum: 1,000 per million non-harmful mutations Mean: 5,500 per million “ “ “ or 1 in 182 non-harmful mutations Maximum: 10,000 per million “ “ “
Category #3: A mutation that is a combination of the above two types, in (“C3”) that it increases both immediate survivability and the potential for a future energy source other than light
Minimum: 2 per million non-harmful mutations Mean: 51 per million “ “ “ or about 1 in 19600 non-harmful mutations Maximum: 100 per million “ “ “
Category #4: No positive effect and no change that would ever result in any structure related to an energy source other than light |